NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Anyone want to consider the Padres’ side of this? Or are we just going to accept the Yankees’ well-publicized position: That the Padres’ demands for Juan Soto are outrageous and unreasonable and every other negative adjective that comes to mind?
The determination of whether a trade package is “reasonable” is in the eye of the beholder. The current impasse between the Yankees and Padres is standard for a negotiation of this magnitude. But while the Yankees’ argument continues to receive traction in the media, the Padres’ case at least merits consideration.
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Essentially, that case is this: Soto, 25, is on a Hall of Fame track. He will be extremely motivated in his walk year while targeting a $500 million contract in free agency. Thus, he represents less of a risk than, say, free-agent outfielder Cody Bellinger, whom MLBTradeRumors.com projects will receive a 12-year, $264 million deal.
The Yankees and other interested clubs, naturally, have their own view. They know their chances of signing Soto to an extension, as the Dodgers did with Mookie Betts after acquiring him, are extremely slim. Soto is represented by Scott Boras, who generally prefers his clients to establish their values on the open market. Soto also turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals, which is what prompted his trade to the Padres in the first place.
Still, whatever happened to the notion that no one-year deal is a bad deal? Two free-agent right-handers who are not exactly world beaters, Luis Severino and Kyle Gibson, signed contracts for $13 million and $12 million, respectively. Granted, Soto’s projection in his final year of arbitration is $33 million.
But the team that acquires him will be getting a hitter with a career .946 OPS, the third highest among active players with a minimum of 3,000 plate appearances, behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. Given all that Soto has at stake with his pending free agency, he’s certainly a reasonable bet to succeed.
And Trent Grisham, the center fielder the Padres reportedly are seeking to attach to Soto, at least in their talks with the Yankees? Let’s not make him out to be an albatross at the level of David Price, whose inclusion in the Betts deal depressed the return for the Red Sox. To get Betts, the Dodgers took on $48 million of the $96 million remaining on Price’s contract. Grisham, who has batted .191 with a .647 OPS the past two seasons, might not prove the answer for the Yankees in center. But his projected arbitration number is a relative pittance, $4.9 million.
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The real issue here is that the Padres want the Yankees to include both right-hander Michael King and pitching prospect Drew Thorpe in a deal for Soto, and the Yankees do not want to do that. The solution? Include one of the two, then figure out the rest of the package. The Yankees’ seeming outrage over the reportedly large number of players the Padres want in return is silly. It’s the quality of the players, not the quantity, that matters.
The Padres need to trade Soto as they try to cut payroll before moving onto other pursuits. The Yankees need Soto as they try to rebound from what general manager Brian Cashman has called a “disaster” of a season. Probably no other team is as eager a suitor. Hence, the reality of the situation: Both teams need this trade.
The rest? It’s just noise.
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(Top photo of Juan Soto: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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